We may hold onto the breeze until about 9am but after that the wind will die off. So the day as a whole is much less windier than today was. If you’re going tree shopping, just dress warm and it will be a nice day. We’ll have a ton of sunshine tomorrow and overall not much wind making temperatures in the 30s manageable. Sunday will be a bit warmer, and we’ll increase the clouds through the day. But will stay dry until late in the evening, more so overnight into Monday.

If you’re travelling, we’re watching a storm system moving across the country that may cause some airport delays over the weekend. Starting Saturday, the storm is in the Rockies so for major airports, Denver might be one to watch. From there the storm moves into the Midwest eyeing airports like Chicago and Detroit. There may be a few snow showers in Minneapolis as well, but it doesn’t look like anything major. Having lived there for several years, the Minneapolis airport is the best of the best for dealing with winter weather and getting flights in and out. Finally by late Sunday night and Monday morning that storm moves into New England and brings us rain and a little wind as well that may slow things down Monday morning at Logan.

In fact go back just five years ago to Thanksgiving 2018 and you’ll be reminded what else Thanksgiving can be like in these parts. Boston had a high temperature of 24°. But what made it worse was nobody actually felt that high temperature because it was at midnight. Temperatures fell for much of the day so being outside we had temperatures in the teens.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler and a bit breezier but all things considered, it’s still a nice day with at least a partly cloudy sky — likely even mostly sunny in the morning. The breeze will come and go. Temperatures will make it to the upper 40s tomorrow and when the breeze kicks in will feel like it’s near 40°.

The true Canadian air arrives for Saturday. A large area of high pressure from Canada will slide into New England. The good news is it will shut off the wind and give us straight sunshine. But it will be cold. Highs will be stuck in the 30s for Saturday with some improvement for Sunday.

For late November this isn’t unexpected. Worcester picked up just under 3″ at the airport overnight. On average, Worcester airport gets about 2″ each November.

For those that didn’t have snow, it was a coooold rain. And on the coast, a wind-driven rain. Wind gusts on the Cape, Islands, South Shore, and Cape Ann gusted over 50 mph in many spots.

The wind will back down tonight and tomorrow but won’t shut off. It will still be a breezy day tomorrow but not as bad as today was. If your family is a Turkey Trot family, bundle up tomorrow morning! Temperatures will be near 40° but with the breeze it will feel like the lower 30s. At least we’ll have some sunshine making a return tomorrow.

After you burn off your Thanksgiving calories, and you head out to refuel, keep the jacket handy. The temperature will be a bit deceiving. We’ll climb to the upper 40s and near 50° tomorrow afternoon, but with the breeze persisting, will feel like the low to mid 40s.

The breeze will stick around for Black Friday shopping on Friday so bundle up, especially if you think you’ll have to wait in lines outside.

Out quiet weather will last through the weekend too. A Canadian high pressure will slide in Saturday which will give us a ton of sunshine and will finally shut the wind down. However, the trade off is cold temperatures. Highs Saturday likely stay in the mid 30s after starting off in the teens and 20s. Sunday is better, but we’ll lose the sunshine with increasing clouds through the afternoon.

Travel wise you’ll have a great few days coming up to hit the road and skies. The increasing clouds on Sunday are ahead of our next round of wet weather arriving Sunday night and through Monday morning.

Here are some quick takeaways:

-It’s a brief few hours of snow in the high terrain and then will flip to rain like the rest of us.

-Rain totals should end up around an inch in most places. It will be steadiest and heaviest in the morning so watch for some pockets of ponding if you’re traveling tomorrow morning.

-Wind will get gusty on the coast line with gusts up to 50 mph possible, most likely on the Cape and Islands.

Rain and snow will begin later this evening, around 9pm. The snow will be confined to just the high terrain, and even there it won’t last for more than a few hours before changing to rain.

Already by 2am, the rain/snow line will push northward into New Hampshire and where it was snowing will flip to rain for the remainder of the overnight hours.

Out the door Wednesday morning still features steady and, at times, heavy rain. And that will be the case for the morning hours tomorrow.

By the afternoon hours the rain will begin to taper off, so if you have some travel flexibility, weather conditions will improve after about 1 or 2pm tomorrow.

Snow amounts are really not all that impressive. As you probably gathered by now, any accumulation will be in the high terrain. Areas outside of 495 may see a very brief period of snow showers but it won’t last long. As if flips over to rain, that rain will wash away any coatings that do accumulate. So your best chance of seeing snow will be later tonight — you won’t have a coating on the ground tomorrow morning.

Even areas that see 1-3″ of snow will have a lot of it washed away and compacted by tomorrow morning as the rain washes it away and compacts what’s left. It will basically be a sloppy and slushy mess tomorrow morning. And throughout the course of the day, will be washed away by the rain.

Where it is rain the entire time, it’s not just rain. It is a wind-driven, cold rain. Wind will be breezy everywhere, but the coast will take the brunt of it. There’s a wind advisory for the Cape and Islands where winds could gust 40-50 mph. The rest of the coast line of Massachusetts doesn’t have a wind advisory but could still see wind gusts 30-40 mph.

While Wednesday is an ugly day, Thanksgiving is much nicer. Temperatures have trended up quite a bit. Last week, it looked like it might be a very cold Thanksgiving. I’m not saying it’s balmy, but it’s not terrible. Temperatures for some of us might make it to 50° which will be spot on the average. However, the wind, while less than Wednesday, will still be gusty and put an added chill to the air. We’ll get some sunshine to peek through the clouds as well.

So your pre-Thanksgiving travel has some weather impacts, mainly Wednesday, but post-Thanksgiving travel looks great. We’ll get a nice break from any curveballs from Mother Nature through the weekend with our next chance at a few showers inbound for Monday.

Today is quiet, cold, and deceiving. Looking outside you’ll see plenty of sun today, but the sun will be accompanied by cold temperatures — highs only making it to about 40° this afternoon. For perspective, we should be at about 50° for highs. Of course the breeze will make it feel colder and keep wind chills around the freezing mark this afternoon. Tomorrow features less wind but clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of our next system Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Of course in between two cold days is a cold night. And that will be the case tonight with many of us seeing temperatures fall to near 20° tomorrow morning.

We’ll watch an area of low pressure move east from the Plains and it will likely cause some travel trouble on the East Coast on Tuesday. While New England weather is quiet until the late evening, you see here major cities and airport hubs will see impact Tuesday afternoon including Detroit, Charlotte, Washington DC, Philadelphia, and eventually the New York City airports as well.

Then that storm arrives to New England late in the evening and overnight. With chilly air, we’ll bring the “s” word back to the forecast. Snow! Ski resorts are happy as it looks to remain snow through much of the day on Wednesday. In Southern New England it will snow overnight in the high terrain, but will flip over to rain for the day on Wednesday.

Snow will likely start (rain elsewhere) around 10-11pm Tuesday night. It will stay snow for several hours overnight, but only in the high terrain. Elsewhere it is all about the rain. Outside of 495 will likely see a coating of snow, but by the time you step out the door early Wednesday morning, it will flip over to rain and you probably won’t even wake up to a coating as the rain washes it away. While slower to make the transition, higher terrain will also flip over to rain later Wednesday morning. So while we have a snow map, it is a lot more about the rain and wind locally than the snow.

Rain amounts will be pretty impressive with many areas picking up an inch or so of water. Wednesday is a washout and it’s also windy. Wind gusts especially on the South Shore and Cape will gust close to 50 mph at times Wednesday.

Once we get through tonight the story becomes the warm up! Temperatures today actually weren’t too far off from average. We’re typically at about 52° this time of year and most us made it to the upper 40s or even 50° today. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer, getting most of us close to that 52° mark.

High pressure that’s in control of our weather this week and is keeping the sunshine around will gradually slide eastward. Right now its location is giving us a north wind that is draining cool air into New England. You can see the cool signal over us with warmer temperatures for the rest of the country. But as that high pressure slides off shore, it’ll switch our winds to the southwest and send the warmer air inbound for the rest of the work week.

Mild temperatures and sunshine is the story for Thursday and Friday. While Saturday stays mild, sunshine won’t stick around. In fact, we’re heading back to something we know all to well this year… weekend rain.

Temperatures aren’t bad for Saturday but it looks like another round of rain is inbound for the weekend. Rain looks to start after midnight on Friday and last through the morning hours Saturday. Saturday afternoon looks more promising for drying out, but it’s likely clouds will stick around all day. We’ll have more sunshine for Sunday but temperatures will head back to the 40s.

Not only was it our coldest morning of the season, but the last time there was a morning that was colder than this, you’d have to go back to February!

November has had a lot of chill, too. It’s only our third month of the year so far that’s running below normal. And coming off of a toasty October, it probably feels even more chilly than it otherwise would.

We’ll keep the chill going over the next few days, but it won’t be as cold as it was today. Increasing clouds this evening and tonight will limit our cooling. So instead of waking up in then teens, most of us should wake up to temperatures near 30°. But with more clouds overhead tomorrow, we won’t warm up as fast. So despite the warmer start, it’ll still be cool in the afternoon. It’ll be another below average day tomorrow.

We’ll get a few more of those blue squares that are becoming oh-so-common this month over the next few days, but there is a warm up in store as we get closer to the weekend.

In actuality, the temperatures we had today and will have over the next couple of days are more mid-November like that what we’ll have for the end of the week and start of the weekend. Temperatures now, in the 40s, are not too far off of our normal high of 52°. But by the time we round out the work week we’ll have a shot at 60° for at least one, if not a couple of days!

The peer-reviewed report says burning gasoline, coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels that release planet-warming gases like carbon dioxide, and other human activities, caused the unnatural warming from November 2022 to October 2023.

Over the course of the year, 7.3 billion people, or 90% of humanity, endured at least 10 days of high temperatures that were made at least three times more likely because of climate change.

“People know that things are weird, but they don’t they don’t necessarily know why it’s weird. They don’t connect back to the fact that we’re still burning coal, oil and natural gas,” said Andrew Pershing, a climate scientist at Climate Central.

“I think the thing that really came screaming out of the data this year was nobody is safe. Everybody was experiencing unusual climate-driven heat at some point during the year,” said Pershing.

The average global temperature was 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the pre-industrial climate, which scientists say is close to the limit countries agreed not to go over in the Paris Agreement — a 1.5 C (2.7 F) rise. The impacts were apparent as one in four humans, or 1.9 billion people, suffered from dangerous heat waves.

At this point, said Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at Columbia University, no one should be caught off guard. “It’s like being on an escalator and being surprised that you’re going up,” he said. ”We know that things are getting warmer, this has been predicted for decades.”

Here’s how a few regions were affected by the extreme heat:

“We need to adapt, mitigate and be better prepared for the residual damages because impacts are highly uneven from place to place,” said Kristie Ebi, a professor at the Center for Health and the Global Environment at the University of Washington, citing changes in precipitation, sea level rise, droughts, and wildfires.

The heat of the last year, intense as it was, is tempered because the oceans have been absorbing the majority of the excess heat related to climate change, but they are reaching their limit, said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University. “Oceans are really the thermostat of our planet … they are tied to our economy, food sources, and coastal infrastructure.”

____

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

While the weekend will be chilly, it will be sunny so get outside and soak up that sun! Temperatures on Saturday will top out in the upper 40s. There will a slight breeze which may add a touch of a chill to the air. It won’t be a knock you off your feet wind, but like today, noticeable. With temperatures that are in the upper 40s, it will feel slightly cooler but overall a nice day.

Sunday will be the cooler day but also have less wind. So while it’s technically a cooler day, it may end up feel similar to Saturday.

November is when our wind starts to ramp up… on average anyway. Our windiest months are November through March. So we expect some of these breezy days. Saturday will be one of those days. The wind will back off Sunday and Monday before picking back up again on Tuesday. Of course these are winds of change, and that change on Tuesday is the beginnings of a warm up for the middle and end of the upcoming week.

As the cold air moves in and sets up shop Wednesday and Wednesday night, it will set the stage for perhaps a few flakes to fall early Thursday morning. Don’t worry we’re not talking disruptive accumulations or anything crazy. But the air will be cold enough early on Thursday that some spots from Metro West to the Merrimack Valley and northwest of there could see a rain/snow mix out the door early Thursday morning.

Temperatures are just marginally cold enough to support this so with just a few hours of warming during the day, we’ll flip that over to all rain by mid to late morning. So while yes, you may see a few flakes falling with the raindrops early Thursday, it really is a day about scattered rain showers and drizzle. Either way, it’s not a pretty day.

As that little system scoots out of there during the afternoon and evening on Thursday, it will wrap in a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the next several days. Not that it’s a blast of arctic air, it will basically just prevent any warm up from occurring through at least the weekend.

Future radar shows the rain in the morning, so make sure the kids have the rain jackets at the bus stop, but by the bus ride home, they might even be in T-shirts as the sun pops out and temperatures climb to the 60s!

Wednesday will give us plenty of sunshine but temperatures will be lot cooler. It’ll be another day with deceiving blue skies and highs are stuck in the 40s. On top of that, we’ll have a breeze that will add to the chill factor on Wednesday. And that cool air for mid week will come into play with Thursday’s forecast — while mostly rain showers, inland spots may see some wintry mix in the Thursday morning.

It won’t stick around for long and much of the day’s story will be about the straight rain showers, but early Thursday morning a rain/snow mix or even some freezing rain is possible. A sign of the times and season for sure!

Temperatures will fall quickly this evening for those out celebrating Halloween so bundle up. We’ll fall from the 40s to the 30s and that’s where we’ll wake up tomorrow morning. Kids at the bus stop should stay dry but you’ll see more clouds than we had today. I’d pack the rain coat with them tomorrow, as we’ll bring a few showers into the forecast by midday and through the afternoon and their bus ride home.

For so many reasons, tomorrow is not as nice as today was. Yes, today was chilly, but tomorrow will be a few degrees colder. And it’s not just the temperatures, we’ll have a lot more clouds than we had today and the wind will be stronger as well, especially on the coast. We’ll also track a few isolated showers tomorrow and with the colder temperatures, some of us will see our first snowflakes of the season. No, we’re not talking about accumulation, just some wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain.

So keep the rain gear and umbrella handy tomorrow with those on and off showers sliding through. It won’t be a repeat of Monday with an all day rain, but chances are you’ll run into something tomorrow and wish you had it. And for some, primarily inland and higher elevations, don’t be shocked to see a few snowflakes tomorrow afternoon. Tis the season!

The cold air will stick around for one more day on Thursday, but at least Thursday will be more like today, with sunshine out in full force. It seems like so many times this year we’ve sat here and said and “just in time for the weekend” followed by bad news — generally rain. This weekend thankfully that’s not the case. Today, we get to say, just in time for the weekend, temperatures will head back close to and even above average.

The good news for the kiddos trick-or-treating tomorrow is you won’t have to worry about any rain gear! That said it will be chilly, so you’ll probably want a layer or two underneath the costumes. With clear skies and light wind, temperatures will fall pretty quickly. The light wind will be nice so there’s not a wind chill, but clear skies and light wind are what we need for temperatures to drop like a rock. And when you only start in the 40s, it’ll be a quick drop to the 30s tomorrow evening.

Whether it’s the cold rain today, or the the chilly temperatures tomorrow, it could always be worse. In fact on this day in 2020, just three years ago, we had snow! And not just a little snow. Boston picked up 4.3″ of snow, which may not seem like a lot from a winter mindset but for October it was! It was the daily record for the day, the snowiest October day on record, and set us up for the snowiest October on record for Boston!

While much of this blog is about the inbound chilly air, we should actually be talking about all the warm air because this October was full of it! The second half of last week through Saturday were incredibly warm! We went back closer to average Sunday and today, but we’ll keep falling and spend the next few days on the other side of average with highs stuck in the 40s.

Those four warm days last week were enough to catapult us to 5th place for warmest October on record! And catapult is what we did. Before Wednesday, we were in 21st place. Those four warm days shot us into 5th. With today and tomorrow being close to and below average, we’ll likely lose our top 5 spot, but it should be enough to keep us in the top 10 warmest Octobers.

With how warm this month has been, just about every town in the area has been frost free and most definitely freeze free. For airport reporting locations across the area, Jaffrey was the only one to drop to 32°. That will change for more of us this week. A few mornings will likely bring frost to many backyards, with a freeze possible for a lot of on Thursday morning.

With a stretch of warm afternoons of course comes warm overnights. Two nights ago we had lows falling into the 30s. Last night was the 40s, and tonight we’ll hold on to the 50s. Remember, 50s are where our typical high temperatures are!

We’ll do it all over again tomorrow, but you’ll notice more clouds. You may have noticed the clouds increasing through the afternoon today after a mostly sunny start. Tomorrow will be more of a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day. It won’t hold temperature back though, we’re heading right back to the 70s.

We’ll stay in the 70s through the start of the weekend with quite the temperature drop on tap for the second half. But it’s all about perspective. That big temperature drop will send us back to reality on Sunday.

A potent cold front like that must mean rain chances then, right? On the weekend, go figure. Well… kinda. The weekend forecast is actually looking pretty nice, especially after what so many of our weekends this summer and fall have given us. A cold front will move through late Saturday and open the door for the cooler air on Sunday. But that cold front is a pretty dry front. It will increase our clouds for Sunday but we’ll stay dry for much of the day. It’s actually not until the warm front arrives that our rain chances will go up — and that is more Sunday evening and Sunday night through Monday timing.

So while Sunday is likely to produce some showers, we’ll make it through a good chunk of the day before that happens. It’s cloudier, and it’s cooler, but it’s far from a washout. We’ll keep the showers around Sunday night and through much of Monday.

And what would New England weather be without some crazy temperature swings? On the back side of that second cold front (so late Monday) will be a shot of cold air, even for October standards. It’s very possible that Tuesday and Wednesday see high temperatures that don’t even make it to 50°!

Today was a typical October day, but the difference from yesterday was all about the wind. While temperatures were similar, we had a brisk northwest wind yesterday versus a warmer southwest wind today. And that southwest wind will start to usher in warmer air as soon as tonight. You’ll notice that tomorrow morning isn’t even close to as cool as this morning was.

Tomorrow is the beginning of our warm stretch with temperatures heading to the lower 70s.

And it gets even warmer! The 70s will stick with us through the first half of the weekend before heading back to reality on Sunday.

Patchy frost is typical for late October. In fact, it’s expected. That said, we haven’t seen that yet. Nobody in southern New England has seen a freeze yet this season and that’s unusual. On average Worcester County and the Monadnock Region sees its first freeze of the season in the first week of October. Metro West, Merrimack Valley, and the rest of southern New Hampshire is the second week of October — obviously we’re past that now. The third week of October those in Southeast Massachusetts are in line for the first freeze. Finally, the last week of October is the rest of the coastline including the Cape — the only exception here is the city of Boston which is in early November. Since we’re not expecting a freeze tonight, that means we’ll make it to November 1st without seeing a freeze this year.

Boston’s average first freeze is November 9th. But keep in mind, that’s at Logan Airport that always stays warmer overnight. It’s not really a great representation for most of the city of Boston — especially western neighborhoods like Jamaica Plain, West Roxbury, etc.

So it’s a chilly start out the door tomorrow morning, but temperatures will climb close to average for late October and in fact we’ll likely be slightly above average once again.

That’s been the story of October so far. It’s been dominated by mild air. We’ve only had three days all month that have been below average… and just barely. Two of the three days have been less than one degree below average. So instead of warm and cold days, it’s been more about warm and near-average days.

So October has been warm, but not quite to the point where we start talking about warmest Octobers on record. At least not yet. Currently we’re sitting at 21st place which maybe doesn’t have much notoriety to it like top ten or top five would, but with records that go back 151 years, that’s still impressive. And I say not yet, because there’s a good warm up coming our way to finish the week and head into the weekend.

While we’re back to average tomorrow, we’ll be 10 to 20 degrees above average Wednesday through Saturday!

Not only have we had a fair amount of dry days this month, the days that it has rained haven’t been complete and total washouts. Boston and Worcester are actually below average in the rainfall department for October so far. We haven’t had a drier than average month since June. In the two days that we did see rain in Boston, it only added up to less than two-tenths of an inch combined.

We’ll keep small rain chances in the forecast both today and tomorrow but those chances are incredibly low, so it’s possible (and in Wednesday’s case, likely) that Boston, or any town for that matter, will make it through the next two days dry. Our best chance of a spot shower today will be on the coast line and our best chance of a spot shower tomorrow will be Buzzard’s Bay and the Cape.

We’ll dry out region-wide on Thursday before more, and more significant, wet weather arrives late Friday and Saturday. Timing right now looks to be showers beginning late afternoon/evening on Friday with most of the rain overnight into Saturday and Saturday night. A storm moving out of the Great Lakes will develop a second area of low pressure that will ride up the Atlantic coast on Saturday, keeping wet weather in place through the day. It does look like (at least as of now) the rain should move out for Sunday, but a cool and gusty breeze will pick up behind it.

I don’t think tomorrow is a great day, but it’ll be better than today. Temperatures will still be cool and a hair below average but we’ll add one or two degrees on top of where we finished today. Most of the showers should exit tomorrow but a spot shower will likely linger behind with the best chance being on the coast or the closer to the coast you are versus inland where the showers were more focused today.

Also notice that sunset time tomorrow! Tonight is our last sunset in the 6pm hour until next March… tis the season.

These cool days certainly are a reminder of what’s to come but it’s also a reminder of what October should feel like. Today was cool, yes, but these slightly cool days feel so much colder when you have a month dominated by warm air. And the slightly cool days don’t outweigh the number of warm days or how warm the warm days are. Don’t forget about the 80s we started the month with! In fact, today will be so close of whether it’s below average or right at average that right now (4pm) I can’t make the call on where we’ll end up. So it’s again another cool day that’s technically not THAT cool, but felt like it.

Another sign of how mild October has been is the fact we haven’t seen freezing temperatures yet. For some of us, we’re past due for that. Worcester County and most of southern New Hampshire typically see the first freeze in early October with Metro West and the Merrimack Valley in mid October. Obviously we are in mid October now and we haven’t even seen a frost in many of these towns, let alone a freeze! And that won’t change over the next 7 days.

Tomorrow will be similar to today where it’ll be close if it even ends up below average at all. But as we look forward through the rest of the work week, we’ll again bring those numbers back on the warm side once again.

There’s a big area of low pressure JUST offshore from us, throwing clouds our way this morning and a few light showers across the Cape and Islands. The shower chance there will continue to diminish this morning as the storm pushes northeast. However, as it moves toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will spin down a trough that will keep things rather cloudy and unsettled to kick off the work week.

The rain chances Monday and Tuesday are just spotty showers. It’s not an all day rain, nor is it heavy, but enough where you probably will want to grab the umbrella out the door tomorrow morning. The better chance of these showers both Monday and Tuesday will be closer to the coast, but they’re not out of the question farther inland either.

We’ll dry out Wednesday and Thursday and our temperatures will rebound closer to average after a chilly start to the week.

The fact that our “average” day felt cooler was just a sign of how mild our October has been. While our mornings have been cool, that’s what October is supposed to feel like. The month so far has been dominated by mild air. In fact, when compared to the individual averages, October is currently the 2nd warmest month we’ve had this year. Granted, we still have half the month to go, but it’s certainly off to a warm start.

The fall like feel from today will last through the weekend and most importantly it looks dry! (For most of us — more on that in a second). Saturday will feature a few more clouds but the wind will back down quite a bit from today. Sunday will be a bit sunnier, but also windier with that gusty breeze picking back up.

Ok, so that rain chance. It’s just a few showers, not widespread rain, and it’s only for the Cape and Island. To be even more specific, probably south of Route 6. Even if a few showers roll through, it will just be a few showers and not even remotely close to washout rains.

Other than that, it looks like a great weekend no matter where you are or where your travels may take you across New England!

Our average high is now 64° and we’ll bounce around that the next few days and gradually add more sun. Mostly cloudy Wednesday, partly cloudy Thursday, and mostly sunny on Friday.

The cool air surges in for the weekend along with our next round of rain. Now, there’s some promise from 24 hours ago, but admittedly we’re still pretty far out for fine details. Our storm for the weekend still has not made “landfall” in the Pacific Northwest. Since it’s still over the ocean, there’s not a lot of data for the models to use to predict the storm track. As the storm spends more time over land, the models get a better handle on the storm and more consistent (and accurate) forecasts.

Saturday still looks like it will be *mostly* ok, with rain arriving Saturday evening. What’s changed is that the storm looks like it may take more of a southerly track — which would reduce our rain chances. I still think we’ll see showers, but not the all out soaking rain that yesterday was hinting at. The question then becomes how long does it take to move offshore. So while most of Saturday is dry, I think Sunday and Monday will at least feature a few showers. We’ll fine tune details in the coming days.

You can see the swirl of the low in Canada, and underneath it is the real chilly air. We won’t tap into that, but we won’t be talking about any good warm ups either.

But with the cool air in close proximity and no warm air surging in, we’ll get rather chilly tonight as temperatures fall to the 40s out the door tomorrow morning!

Temperatures for us should be just warm enough to keep us out of any frost risk, but just to our north the same cannot be said. A frost advisory is in effect for northern New England, but it’s mid October now so this isn’t unexpected. And if you still have any plants left outside, maybe it’s time we just let them go to Mother Nature. It’s a little different than a frost advisory in spring when we’re just getting going into the growing season.

Tomorrow is our only chance of rain through the work week, and it’s small. A few spot showers are possible through the day but most of us will stay dry.

We’ll have some sun tomorrow in between the showers tomorrow but temperatures will stay on the cooler side — low to mid 60s for most of us.

We’ll stay in the 60s for the rest of the work week. But like I mentioned earlier, aside from the small shower chance tomorrow, the rest of the work week is dry.

Our next chance of rain returns…. wait for it… drum roll please… for the weekend! Go figure, story of the fall and summer. The way it looks now, granted we’re nearly a full week away and timing will likely change slightly, is Saturday morning starts dry with showers beginning Saturday evening, lasting through Sunday, before taping off through the day on Monday.

Tomorrow will still bring above average temperatures, but you’ll notice some changes with more clouds than what we’ve seen the last few days. A mostly cloudy sky returns, and while not as warm as the last few days, temperatures will climb back above average to the lower 70s — we should be in the mid 60s.

The clouds are ahead of our rain chances that will return for the first part of your weekend. Saturday looks to be cloudy with a few showers, but there’s some promising news from what the forecast looked like earlier in the week. Our rain chances are coming from a combination of a cold front to our west and Tropical Storm Phillippe to our east. Phillippe will stay out to sea and churn up our seas but that’s as close as it’ll get. That said, the cold front will try to pull some of the rain and moisture from Phillippe into it, and work in tandem to bring wet weather back to New England on Saturday.

Earlier this week, it looked like that “merge” of the cold front and Phillippe’s moisture would happen over southern New England. Now it looks like that will happen over northern New England. While that doesn’t mean our weekend will be dry, it does mean it will be a lot drier than it once looked. We’re essentially threading the needle between the two systems, which means there will be steadier and heavier rain both to the east and west of us on Saturday. While central Massachusetts and the 95 Corridor show at least some promise, the same cannot be said just a few miles away for the Berkshires and the Cape, where showers will be heavier and more numerous on Saturday.

The rain is moving pretty quickly, and while Saturday night looks wet, most of the rain will be gone by Sunday morning. Those across southern New Hampshire may have a lingering shower until about 8am but other than that Sunday is a drier, and much cooler day!

As mentioned earlier, part of our rain maker is a cold front and boy you’ll feel that on Sunday. Not only is it a shot of reality for Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures, but it’ll be pretty breezy as well, making the second half of the holiday weekend rather brisk. After the week we had, it’ll probably feel quite jarring despite being more typical of October than what we’ve had in October so far.

Temperatures already have begun the decline from the 80s yesterday, to upper 70s today, to the lower 70s tomorrow. Temperatures will continue to step down the next several days through the holiday weekend. But notice that average high of 66°. The air we’ll have in place through Columbus Day Weekend will be closer to that average than this week has been. Welcome to fall!

Tomorrow many towns will head to the 80s.

But it’s not just the warmer temperatures that will make it feel like August, the humidity will rise too. Notice where the warm air is, there’s also a lot higher humidity. We again were comfortable today, but those higher dew points and the more muggy feel will return for the rest of the week. Now, it’s not going to be your mid summer humidity with dew points surging to the tropical levels, but for fall standards, it will be on the sticky side.

Temperatures will slowly come down, but stay above average for the rest of the week. We’ll also keep the sunshine through Friday. And go figure, the theme of 2023, it looks like our next round of wet weather will return Friday night and Saturday.

Things will settle down overnight as high pressure takes control of our weather for the next couple of days. As high pressure slides in, it will clear out the skies and calm down the winds. That combination will allow temperatures to cool off very efficiently overnight. And since we’re already starting low, we’ll drop pretty low overnight. Most of us will see overnight lows drop into the 40s tonight.

So make sure the kids have a layer on for the bus tomorrow morning! Probably more than a hoodie even. Welcome to jacket season! The good news is no rain gear is needed tomorrow morning and we’ll finally wake up to sunshine!

Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be warmer than today, but still a few degrees below average. We should be in the upper 60s, but we’ll likely top out in the middle 60s. Given the chilly start tomorrow that’s a pretty decent rebound. And we’ll do it all over again on Thursday — a cool start in the 40s for most, rebounding to the 60s with sunny skies.

How long can this high pressure hang on? Well it will be a fight for the end of the week. If we can make it through Friday and Saturday, our sunny and mild stretch will stretch into next week too. For most of us I think we will stay dry but a low is trying to head north up the coast and may try to throw a few showers on the Cape, just something to watch over the next day or two.

Not only is it cloudy and wet today, but we’ll keep the onshore wind that could get pretty gusty on the coast. So it’s just another raw day today. Thankfully improvements start as soon as tomorrow.

High pressure will start to push in from our north. As that happens we’ll see baby steps of improvements through the next couple of days. The first improvement is the rain. The rain will push south overnight and finally dry us out for the rest of the week. Even though the rain pushes south tomorrow, a lot of the clouds will hold tight, especially in the morning. And it’s not just the clouds that linger, the wind will too. The wind will essentially get squeezed between the high and low pressure systems and keep the gusty wind around for your Tuesday too.

By Wednesday high pressure continues to move in (slowly) so we’ll see more sun and the wind will back down as well for mid week. It won’t shut off, but there will be decent improvement from today and tomorrow’s wind.

Last but not least, the temperatures. They will also improve this week but it will take time. In fact we’ll stay rather cool Tuesday and even Wednesday as the rain and clouds exit. It’s not until the end of the week and weekend that we’ll warm things up closer to 70°.

So it’s a crisp start tomorrow morning but with the sunshine we’ll rebound nicely in the afternoon. Wind today was less than yesterday and tomorrow will be less than today. Temperatures will climb into the lower 70s again tomorrow, but make sure the kids have a layer for the bus stop in the morning!

Friday will be another nice day to finish the week, but we’ll have some high clouds stream in later in the day Friday.

The high clouds are ahead of thicker cloud cover that will move in for the weekend. Sadly the weekend does not look to be as bright as what we’ve dealt with this week. With the clouds come rain chances but how much rain is still to-be-determined. We’re in the battle zone between the strong high that’s overhead right now giving us sunshine, and a coastal low that will try to move north off of the Carolinas. The models aren’t in agreement as to which will win. The European is team high pressure, while the American model is team low pressure. The takeaway right now is the farther south you are, the more likely you’ll deal with rain this weekend. Hopefully tomorrow there will be a little more agreement on how the weekend is shaping up.

The fall like air mass will be with us for the rest of the week. We’ll lose the wind for the rest of the week but the sunshine will stick around.

Temperatures will drop by a degree or two but the biggest change this week will be the lack of wind going forward. We’ll stay pretty seasonable with temperatures in the low 70s… until Saturday. More clouds move in for the weekend which will bring temperatures down a bit. The clouds are with a storm rolling off the Georgia/South Carolina coast line. That low will try to work up to the north while a high tries to squash it south and keep us dry. We’ll just have to watch how that plays out and the trends before we talk about how likely rain is for the weekend.

So it’s certainly a fall feel this week but we’re still technically in summer! Fall officially begins Saturday morning at 2:50 am.

And with the fall season comes the colors of course! We’ve seen some of the wet areas and swamp maples turn red even here in southern New England, but trees as a whole are still very green. We’re starting to see some patchy colors pop up across the Canadian border where things usually peak at the end of September/early October. But the forecast this year is peak color to be a bit delayed than average.

We do have a flood watch in effect for eastern Massachusetts where we could see 2-3″ of rain today. Unfortunately that includes the Attleboro-Providence areas that were slammed with rain just a week ago today. Outside of the flood watch will still see an inch or so of rain. In towns like Leominster and Fitchburg that’s still too much rain but the flood risk there, while not zero, is lower than in the green shaded areas.

Most towns are line for at least an inch of water today with the 95 Corridor likely picking up 2″ and in some cases close to 3″ of rain. The rain is with us all day long today, not moving out until late this evening, likely after 8pm.

Once we get through today, we’ll dry out for the rest of the week. Not only will we dry out, but the forecast looks outstanding and very fall like. We’ll have sunny skies Tuesday thru Friday with fall like highs and crisp mornings.

Lee is so huge that its tropical-storm-force winds (between 39 and 74 mph) extend more than 300 miles from the center – well outside the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone, which indicates where the center could track.

Though Lee is not expected to make landfall in New England, the storm’s heavy rain could trigger isolated inland flooding, high surf could cause coastal flooding, and powerful wind gusts could knock out electricity.

“We’re going to start to see those direct impacts start to move into portions of southeastern New England as early as later this afternoon, this evening, and then spread northward up into Maine overnight tonight and into Saturday,” National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Friday.

“The big story with Lee is just that it’s a large hurricane.”

As of 2 p.m. ET Friday, Hurricane Lee was centered about 340 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, the National Hurricane Center said. It was traveling north-northeast at 18 mph, whipping maximum sustained winds of 80 mph.

“So even though the center is expected to stay offshore of the coast of southeastern New England,” Brennan said, “those tropical-storm-force winds are going to move into places (in Massachusetts) like Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket as we get later into today and tonight, and then spread northward along the coast of New England and up into Atlantic Canada overnight tonight and early Saturday.”

Lee’s winds could cause power outages and isolated flooding – especially in areas where the ground is already saturated from recent rain.

“There’s leaves still on the trees in New England. There is wet soil. So there’s going to be the potential for tree damage, power outages,” Brennan said.

At the coast, flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is possible if Lee’s storm surge coincides with high tide from the Long Island Sound north through Maine, Brennan said.

Lee will “approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and Saturday,” the hurricane center said. “Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.”

Along the way, Lee could deluge some communities with a combination of rain, storm surge and high tide.

“A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.”

On Saturday, hurricane-strength winds (at least 74 mph) are possible from the northern coast of Maine into portions of the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. But tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible across a much larger area of New England and Atlantic Canada.

In Canada, Provincial and wildlife parks in Nova Scotia are closed Friday as Lee inches closer to the area.

“Safety is our priority as we prepare for storm conditions forecast for the weekend,” said Tory Rushton, provincial minister of natural resources and renewables. “We are closing our parks for the storm and will reopen when it is safe.”

Lee is expected to dump its heaviest rain – up to 6 inches – over far northern Maine on Saturday. Neighboring New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island could also see several inches.

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared a state of emergency Friday as coastal parts of the state prepared for strong wind, heavy rain and flooding.

And Maine Gov. Janet Mills declared a state of emergency Thursday, requesting federal aid in preparation for the storm’s arrival.

After days of uncertainty, there’s little time left for Lee’s track to change considerably, and confidence has grown now that the massive storm has completed its long-awaited northward turn and begun to pick up its pace.

Lee is expected to track far enough away from the East Coast to avoid delivering a substantial blow to a more widespread and inland area of New England, but will still affect the coast ahead of a weekend landfall somewhere between northeast Maine and the Canadian province of Nova Scotia.

Parts of the East Coast were already feeling the storm’s effects Thursday, including “dangerous surf and rip current conditions,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills declared a state of emergency Thursday afternoon and requested federal assistance in preparation for Lee’s arrival.

Lee’s core was about 185 miles west of Bermuda as of Thursday night and was churning with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph – a Category 1 hurricane – according to the hurricane center. An island-wide tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda as Lee tracks west of the island.

Power outages mounted across Bermuda on Thursday afternoon as Lee’s winds battered the island, according to the island’s utility provider. Winds gusted up to 51 mph at Bermuda’s L.F. Wade International Airport.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for many of New England’s coastal residents in anticipation of the colossal storm’s impact on Friday and through the weekend.

A tropical storm warning issued along New England’s coast was extended northward to the US and Canada border, the hurricane center said in a 5 p.m. advisory. And a tropical storm warning in effect for the coast of Massachusetts was extended westward to Westport, according to the advisory.

Though the storm is expected to weaken as it approaches land, it will still have a massive radius of damaging winds that could pound coastal New England and Canada’s Atlantic provinces. As of Thursday night hurricane-force winds extended up to 105 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds stretched for up to 345 miles, according to the hurricane center.

Hurricane-strength winds are possible from the northern coast of Maine into portions of the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia on Saturday. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible across a much larger area of New England and Atlantic Canada.

These strong winds will contribute to storm surge flooding up to 3 feet that could inundate parts of the southeast Massachusetts coast late Friday and Saturday.

Heavy rainfall could pose a flood threat to some already rain-drenched areas of the Northeast, where saturated ground may be particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Lee’s heaviest rain will fall over portions of Maine Saturday, but states like New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island are not completely in the clear.

Lee could deliver 1 to 2 inches of rain from Rhode Island to northern Maine, while 2 to 4 inches of rain can fall across the Massachusetts Cape and much of Maine. Repeated downpours may bring up to 6 inches of rain to southeastern Maine.

The softened soil combined with stiff wind gusts will also increase the likelihood of downed trees, which in turn could knock out essential power lines and cause outages. Areas at and near the coast, which will feel the strongest of Lee’s winds, will be the most at risk of wind damage and power outages.

The flash flood emergency declared by the National Weather Service included Leominster, Fitchburg, Lunenburg, Princeton and Sterling as of around 11 p.m. A larger swath of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire was included under a series of flash flood warnings earlier in the evening.

In Leominster, rescues were underway in several spots Monday night and officials said they were in the process of rushing mutual aid from neighboring communities and state agencies into hard hit areas while rain continued to fall.

“Do not venture out,” said Leominster Mayor Dean Mazzarella in a message on Facebook around 6:30 p.m. “It is not safe.” 

In a subsequent Facebook Live video, Mazzarella shared a view from a parking lot near the Leominster police station which he said had been flooded since around 4:30 p.m.

“Every crew is out here,” Mazzarella said, adding “We’ve called in everybody.” 

Mazzarella further urged community members to stay off the roads and said some buildings in the area had eight feet of water in them around 7:45 p.m. 

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” he said. 

Leominster mayor describes rescues, mutual aid response

Mazzarella spoke with 7NEWS around 9 p.m., saying heavy rain started falling around 4:15 p.m. 

As of 9 p.m., Mazzarella said there was no place for the water to go and many streets were blocked. 

“People are trying to get off the highway,” he said. “But our streets are flooded.”

In addition to Department of Public Works crews, police officers and firefighters, Mazzarella said city officials had called for help from neighboring communities as well as state authorities. 

“We just need bodies at this particular point,” he said. 

As officials called for help, though, Mazzarella said the city would need to keep its roads clear.

“We’ve called in for mutual aid,” he said. “We can’t get them here if our roads are blocked because people can’t get through large puddle areas.”

“Stay out of Leominster tonight,” Mazzarella continued.

Mazzarella said downtown Leominster had been hit hard by flooding. Elsewhere, Mazzarella said severe flooding was taking place along the Nashua River and the Monoosnoc Brook. 

Near the Monoosnoc Brook, between Water Street and Mechanic Street, Mazzarella said a building had begun to partially collapse. Firefighters were on scene at the building around 9 p.m. working to make sure no one was inside. 

Flooding trapped some people in cars in parts of Leominster, requiring rescues, according to Mazzarella. 

Off Central Street, a mobile home community was “flooded out,” prompting evacuations, Mazzarella said. 7NEWS cameras on scene captured some of the evacuations, with people seen carrying their belongings away from their homes and toward dry land while rescuers went door to door.

Other people were seen being brought out on boats.

7NEWS spotted multiple rescues in the area of Main Street and Pleasant Street, though floodwaters had receded to some degree around 10:30 p.m.

Off Main Street near the Nashua River, part of a parking area at a luxury car dealership washed out, dropping several cars into what had been steady, solid ground. 

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WATCH: Flooding washes out part of parking lot at luxury car dealership

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As crews contended with the effects of flooding, Leominster Public Schools Superintendent Paula Deacon announced Monday night that city schools will be closed on Tuesday.

“Please stay safe,” Deacon said. 

The Frances Drake School on Viscoloid Avenue in Leominster was open as a shelter as of around 9:30 p.m. for those in need, Mazzarella announced on Facebook.

More than 60 people had arrived at the school by 11 p.m.

Flooding prompts road closures, canceled trains 

The state Department of Transportation (MassDOT) in a statement said various state roads were closed due to flooding as of around 7:50 p.m. including Route 2 in Leominster, Route 1A in Attleboro and Exit 51 from I-90 Eastbound and Westbound in Chicopee.

Route 1A in Attleboro reopened later Monday night.

Eastbound lanes on Route 2 in Leominster had reopened as of early Tuesday morning, according to MassDOT. Westbound lanes remained closed.

Exit 51 on I-90 Eastbound and Westbound in Chicopee reopened Monday night, though I-291 westbound was closed at Exit 6 in the area around 9 p.m.

Several MBTA Commuter Rail trains were canceled, delayed or terminated early on both the Fitchburg and Providence lines beginning around 7 p.m., according to posts on X, formerly known as Twitter.

In a later post, the T announced service had been suspended on the Providence Line between Pawtucket/Central Falls and Wickford Junction due to flash flooding in Providence.

“Expect severe delays in both directions,” the T said.

“Passengers may consider RIPTA bus services as alternatives for service between Pawtucket and Wickford Junction,” the T said in a separate post.

On the Fitchburg Line, the T said all trains will now originate/terminate at Shirley station due to damage from flash flooding.

The T said buses will replace train service between Shirley and Wachusett through the end of service on Tuesday.

“Our engineering team is working to make necessary repairs to resume regular service as soon as possible,” the T said.

In North Attleboro, where heavy rain caused more flash flooding, the town’s emergency operations team in a message asked community members to “please stay off of the roads and shelter in place until further notice” Monday night.

In an update around 11:45 p.m., North Attleboro officials said floodwaters were receding and said the town’s shelter-in-place order had been lifted.

“If you need to drive, please exercise caution and do not attempt to pass through any road closures,” officials said.

Gov. Maura Healey responded to the flooding situations unfolding in Massachusetts communities in a statement earlier Monday night, saying “There are catastrophic floods in the Leominster area and other communities across the state this evening.”

“My heart goes out to the impacted communities and public safety personnel,” Healey said. 

Healey said she spoke with Leominster Mayor Mazzarella “and instructed state agencies to do all that they can to assist.”

Personnel with the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, the Massachusetts State Police and the state Department of Fire Services were on the ground as of Monday night with boat rescue and emergency response teams “to ensure the safety of our residents,” Healey said.

Drier weather expected Tuesday

The flash flood emergency and a corresponding flash flood warning for Leominster, Fitchburg and surrounding communities are scheduled to remain in effect until 8 a.m. Monday

Flash flood warnings elsewhere in southern New England had expired as of 11:30 p.m.

Radar estimates around 9 p.m. Monday showed anywhere from six to nine inches of rain over the past several hours near Leominster, which had already been hit hard by several rounds of rainy weather this summer.

Further south, another stretch of communities along the Massachusetts/Rhode Island border north of Providence and near North Attleboro had received well over seven inches of rain in recent hours before 9 p.m., according to radar estimates.

Steady showers and downpours moved away from southern New England Monday night, leaving only light showers in some spots shortly before midnight.

Some spotty showers are expected to make their way across the region on Tuesday, though they are expected to be less intense and more fast-moving than rain on Monday.

More scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday.

This is a developing story; stay with 7NEWS on-air and online for the latest updates.

1) The stationary front sitting… well, stationary… over New England.

2) A cold front in the Midwest that will kick out the stationary front and provide us with drier air to close the week (sun and low humidity!)

3) Hurricane Lee

Ok so the short term forecast is all about that stationary front. As the cold front to the west moves eastward it will nudge that stationary front east tomorrow so most of the rain will shift offshore. It’s most of the rain, not all of the rain. So while tomorrow is a drier day than today, it’s not 100% dry. And while we’ll still have a lot of clouds, I do think we’ll see some breaks of sunshine as well. It will also be another humid day as the drier air doesn’t return until the cold front passes.

The next feature we watch is the cold front. That will move through Wednesday afternoon. When that passes our rain chances will go up again. Wednesday is another humid day with scattered shower and thunderstorms.

Behind that cold front, the sun will come back for a couple of days. Thursday will be sunny with lowering humidity, while Friday takes the cake for the day with low humidity. The drop in humidity is lagging the front a little bit. Then our focus shifts to Hurricane Lee over the weekend.

So what’s the latest with Lee. Lee is currently a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph and gusts up to 150 mph. It is moving off to the northwest but will eventually make a more northward turn and parallel the US East Coast.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Lee back up to a Category 4 storm this evening/tonight and then slowly weakens the storm as it heads north, but it does keep the storm maintaining hurricane status.

The first stop is off the coast of Bermuda. The cone juuuuuust crazes the island. But before we show that let’s discuss the **cone of uncertainty** that we use on these graphics. It’s not the cone of impacts — meaning impacts from the storm can and will extend beyond the cone. The cone of uncertainty is the uncertainty of where the center of the storm will track. So yes, it’s possible that the center of the storm can take that far easterly track and clip Bermuda. It’s also possible it takes the more westward side of the cone and lessens the impacts. But not everywhere in the cone is created equal. The *most likely* track is the center of the cone where the icons are. As you head toward the fringes of the cone, while still possible, is less likely than the center.

From there, the storm continues north and holds the category 1 status. The cone (keep in mind the explanation from above) clips Nantucket. Again, that does not mean the rest of us like the Cape do not see any IMPACTS, it’s the center of the storm. But in the same sense, Nantucket is on the fringe of the cone so it’s less likely than the center of the track that stays out to sea. We won’t know more about impacts — who, what, where, when until the storm track and uncertainty becomes a little more refined, but at a minimum we’ll be watching for extremely rough surf with the close proximity of the storm. Stay tuned for updates with Lee this week!

Tomorrow will be the hottest of the bunch with most of us away from the coastline climbing to the 90s and feels like temperatures closer to 100°. The coast line will again be cooler, but still plenty warm with temperatures in the 80s.

So where’s the relief?! Well, distance-wise it isn’t that far away… time-wise is a different story. There’s a cold front moving the Great Lakes now but as it gets closer to the northeast and New England will almost become stationary and keep the true relief away until next week. As it slowly presses into New England, it will drop our temperatures each day through the weekend and increase our rain chances each day. With just a few showers or a storm Saturday, a few more Sunday, with the wettest day on Monday.

Elsewhere, we’re watching the tropics where we now have Hurricane Lee. Lee is a category 1 storm but as it pushes through prime conditions, there’s nothing to slow it down over the next several days and is expected to reach category 4 status by the weekend! It’s certainly a storm to watch through the weekend and into early next week.

Tomorrow we do it all over again with air temperatures near 90° and feels like temperatures in the 90s. The coast will again benefit from Mother Nature’s air conditioning and top out in the 80s and eventually settle back into the 70s in the later afternoon.

The heat and humidity are with us for the rest of the week, so get used to it. The bottom number on each day the forecast air temperature (inland — remember cooler on the coast most days), with the feels like temperature and the humidity factored in on the top row.

Due to the prolonged heat and feels like temperatures in the 90s for several days, there’s a heat advisory in effect thru Thursday. Obviously with the sea breezes, the advisory does not include the coast line.

And because of that sea breeze, Boston will not get a heat wave while many inland locations do. In fact, Boston has not seen a heat wave this year. We’ve only had 4 total days hit 90° in Boston and not consecutively. So it looks like Boston will not have an official heat wave this year, the first time since 2014.

Well that’s if you like the heat because while we’ve had a few hot days mixed in, it’s been a heatless summer. Boston only hit 90° four times this year and failed to get three consecutive, which means we made it through the summer with no heat wave. Granted, we still have September left but the days are limited to achieve that feat. The last time Boston made it through a summer without a heat wave was 2014.

June was a cool and cloudy month, in fact one of the cloudiest Junes on record for Boston (sorry if you chose to forget that and block it from your memory). Of course with all the clouds, temperatures ran cool. July was the opposite. With all the humid days, it kept overnight low temperatures very warm and kept the month as a whole above average. August is almost spot on to average (less than a half a degree below average) but our warm July wasn’t warm enough to outweigh the cooler months. So as of now, the summer of 2023 will be the coolest for Boston since 2015. What’s most incredible about this is less than a degree below average and it takes you back eight years to a summer this cool — a side effect of a warming planet and climate for sure. From here it doesn’t look like there’s any real heat over the next week or so.

So where is the heat? While we enjoyed a cooler summer. The Midwest was the exact opposite. I say enjoyed because even heat lovers might have found a summer like the Midwest had to be a little much. This week will be another hot one there with triple digit heat index values for the rest of the week: air temperatures are pushing 100° and dew points will stay in the tropical levels for several days. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in place for this week.

Sometimes we point out what’s happening in the Midwest and say watch the heat build, and then spread into the Northeast. That’s not the case this time around. We continue with the cooler pattern for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Tomorrow will be an almost carbon copy of today, maybe one or two degrees cooler, but low humidity and plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will stay in the 70s through the weekend (average high is 80°) with wet weather returning Thursday night and remaining in some form or another through Sunday. Thursday night and Friday look to be the wettest period and a washout of a day. Saturday and Sunday don’t look to be washouts but a few showers on Saturday and a spot shower on Sunday.

Now, average highs are near 80° so the cooler air is all relative and even though we fall to the 70s for the rest of the week, the next few days are not atypical for late August. But it’s not just the temperatures that fall back the next few days, the humidity will too.

While our forecast is cooling down, the tropics are heating up! Now, this isn’t unexpected for this time of year. Mid August to mid October is peak hurricane time with the Atlantic waters reaching their warmest of the year.

As of the writing of this blog (4pm Monday) the National Hurricane Center has five separate waves they’re watching in the Atlantic Ocean (from left to right, or west to east on the graphic below):

1. Disturbance in the Gulf: As of now, this is known as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”. There is a 90% chance that this will get named. The forecast is for the storm to strengthen to a Tropical Depression, then to a Tropical Storm and make landfall in south Texas (south of Houston) tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.

2. Tropical Storm Franklin: Franklin is expected to move north toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti as a Tropical Storm. Once it moves across those islands, it is forecast to strengthen to a Category 1 Hurricane but at that point be out over the open ocean waters. Regardless, flooding rains are expected in Haiti, Dominican Republican, and even Puerto Rico. Landfall there is expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

3. Tropical Storm Gert: Gert is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression overnight and completely fizzle out by this time tomorrow.

4. Tropical Depression Emily: Emily was once a Tropical Storm that has weakened into a Tropical Depression. Emily is forecast to remain a Tropical Depression over the next few days and not completely fall apart until Thursday. Either way, she says over the open ocean waters and does not impact land.

5. Disturbance off of Africa: While the first disturbance is technically “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”, this one doesn’t even have that name. It’s simply a wave or complex of storms that is being watched. That said, it has a 70% chance of becoming named in the next five days.

The next storms names on the list are Harold and Idalia.

On August 10th, the National Hurricane Center increased its forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane season going from a “near-normal” season to a “slightly above average” season.

We’re not done with this storm system yet. It’s stretched out and goes all the way to Detroit. Now that said, we are done with the steady and heavy rain. While we have spotty showers back tomorrow, they’re nowhere near what it was this morning.

Regardless, that moisture still has to slide through New England, so some of us will deal with more showers for tomorrow morning’s commute. It won’t be as bad, or as slow, as today. The showers will be very spotty, but they’ll be out there tonight and tomorrow morning especially. While a rogue shower is still possible for the evening commute, it’s a much lower chance than the morning commute — and that chance isn’t great either.

While we’ll deal with a lot of clouds again tomorrow, I do think we’ll see a few peeks of sun and the rain will be a lot more isolated. So even though it’s not ideal, it’s better than today was and temperatures will be warmer too.

Below are screen shots of future radar to show how spotty and isolated the showers are tomorrow. They’re more likely in the morning than the afternoon but no part of the day is 100% dry and no part of the day is a washout.

That westerly breeze should be just strong enough to hold off the sea breeze. It won’t be an overly windy day, more of a “Goldilocks” wind. Not too strong, not too light, juuuust right. If the wind is too light, the sea breeze will set up on the coast line.

That means we’ll push mild air right out to the beaches. Your beach forecast looks good with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and water temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. UV index is high, so don’t forget the sunscreen, and high tide in the middle part of the day with low tide holding off until almost 5pm tonight.

Enjoy today because we’ll already be talking changes by tomorrow morning. Rain, storms, and downpours will move in during the overnight hours and stick with us tomorrow morning. The commute tomorrow will probably be pretty slow. The wet weather is primarily in the morning tomorrow with an afternoon lull. I don’t think it’s 100% dry but rain chances back off significantly tomorrow afternoon. Storm chances will spike back up later tomorrow evening and night with wave number two. That will probably be 7pm and after.

While the rain will be heavy at times, we’ll also have to watch the possibility of a strong to severe storm. The risk isn’t widespread but an isolated strong to severe storm is possible tomorrow morning. That looks to be most likely south of the Mass Pike.

Not only will the humidity fall off this afternoon to very comfortable levels, but we’ll have mild temperatures and a lot of sunshine. It really is a close-to-perfect summer day.

With lower humidity, we’ll cool off this evening. Not that it’s a cold evening by any stretch, but when there isn’t humidity to help keep numbers up at night, we’ll cool off pretty efficiently with clear skies and wind that settles down.

All things considered, the weekend forecast looks great too. I can’t say it’s 100% dry for everyone but rain and storm chances will stay very low. Saturday is a mostly sunny, mostly dry day with a small (20%) chance of a storm pushing through our inland spots Saturday evening. Most of the activity moving out of New York will struggle to push east and fizzle out on the way until the overnight hours. The biggest storm chance this weekend will be overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday a few storms will linger behind, mainly in the morning, but a rogue afternoon shower is possible. It’s still only a 30% chance on Sunday, but the humidity will skyrocket back to near tropical levels for the second half of your weekend.

Storms will arrive again this evening and much like Tuesday, we’re looking at the possibility that a few of them are strong or severe and we’ll once again deal with downpours and the potential for flooding. We have a flood watch out once again for the second part of the day today and into the early overnight.

Like Tuesday, I think downpours and flooding our the biggest threat to the storms that move in this evening but some of them do have the potential to be strong and severe. The storms that do become severe would have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and once again, an isolated tornado or two.

With the center of storm moving south of southern New England, that will keep the highest risk for strong to severe storms across our southern spots. The risk is elevated all the way up to 128 but I think it’s most likely in southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape, and Islands. The marginal risk of severe weather is a level 1/5 on the severe weather scale. What that means is the number of storms that will become severe should stay isolated and not widespread — not to be confused with the intensity. Tuesday we had the same risk (1/5) but of the four storms that became severe, two of them went on to produce tornadoes. Also remember that downpours and flooding do not qualify as a severe storm.

Future radar shows that at 1:00 this afternoon the storms are still off to our southwest. Clouds will increase through the day but we’ll stay through lunch time. By 4:00 we’ll start to see a few isolated storms pop up. These should stay isolated and primarily across our inland spots. While these storms could produce downpours, this isn’t the main window we’d watch for severe storm potential. That will come as the center of the low gets closer and storms can twist and tap into that energy a little better.

By 7pm the storms are becoming more widespread, and this is when we’ll increase the likelihood that a few of those storms could be strong and severe.

As that storm system exits, it is taking the clouds, rain, and humidity with it. As the dry air punches in, it will be a bit breezy this morning, but it’s a refreshing drier breeze than the tropical air we had yesterday. Dew points in Boston over the last 24 hours have really fallen off — really in the last 12 hours. From tropical, juicy air yesterday afternoon to a much more comfortable feeling this morning. Dew points will come down even more for the afternoon today.

Today will end up being a very nice afternoon. We have clouds overhead this morning but those will decrease as yesterday’s storm system continues to move eastward. In general, today’s forecast is decreasing clouds, decreasing humidity, and decreasing wind. Wind that is near 20 mph now will settle back closer to 10 mph this afternoon. And our mostly cloudy skies this morning will become mostly sunny. Temperatures will climb to the lower 80s today.

Today is a dry day, tomorrow is mostly dry as rain chances return late tomorrow. And that’s really the theme with our storm chances going forward through the 7 day forecast. There’s a lot of overnight rain chances with many of the days being dry. Starting with tomorrow, rain chances will hold off until dinner/commute time and continue through the late evening and overnight. They’ll exit by Friday morning.

Now, not to panic but there is a risk that some of the storms late Thursday could again be strong or severe. Parts of Massachusetts are under a marginal risk of severe weather. It’s a level 1/5 on the severe weather scale, so it’s not a high risk, but would mean that a couple storms could be severe. It’s the same level we had for the storms yesterday which ended up producing those two tornadoes. So the takeaway is to prepare, not panic. Just stay up to date with us, we’ll of course keep you updated with the latest information, forecast trends, and storms as they develop.

Rain chances are as follow this week/weekend:
– Thursday evening/Thursday night
– Friday and most of Saturday are dry
– Rain returns late Saturday evening and continues on-and-off through Sunday
– Most of Monday is dry
– Showers and storms are back Monday night and Tuesday

Like so many times this summer, our biggest threat today is not necessarily the strong or severe criteria for the storm, but rather the rain. As a reminder, an official severe storm requires wind gusts to 60 mph, hail over 1″ in diameter, or a tornado. There’s a lot of water locked up in our atmosphere this morning and you’ll feel that in the humidity as you step out the door. As the warm front moves through this morning, it will squeeze all of that moisture out of the atmosphere. So any of these storms could produce a quick inch or two of rain, then imagine getting a couple or few storms back-to-back, that’s where the flood risk comes in. For that reason, we have a flood watch out in effect for the day today.

While the heavy rain is our biggest risk and threat, it is possible to get a few storms that could show signs of what would constitute a severe storm. If that were to happen, our most likely reason would be strong wind gusts, but we cannot rule out the tornado risk today if these storms try to spin a bit. It’s more likely the rotation risk would be with the morning batch of storms than the evening batch.

The biggest question of the forecast today with the storms is what happens in between the two rounds. The drier it is, the more sun we see, would re-energize the atmosphere before the storms this evening. If we keep a few showers and a lot of clouds around, that would lessen the severe chances. Below are future radar shots for the day today. A few things to note on the storms and future radar shots:

– Notice the scattered nature of the storms this morning. Not everyone will see rain and storms this morning.

– The main window of time for the strong to severe potential is until noon.

– The drier window this afternoon will dictate the strength of the storms this evening (after 4pm)

– Note: the afternoon hours aren’t 100% dry but they’ll be the driest hours of the day.

In general, the storms will weaken as they move south and east. The risk of strong or severe storm is more likely in the yellow shaded area (level 2 of 5 on the severe weather scale). Then down to a 1 of 5 for those inside of 495, with no severe storms expected in southeastern Massachusetts or the Cape.

Any storm that does become severe will be for either gusty wind or large hail. In fact, there have been reports across central New Hampshire this afternoon of quarter to ping-pong ball sized hail. So you might want to make sure your car is in the garage tonight if you have that possibility. Even though wind and hail are the most likely impacts for a severe storm, any storm will produce downpours, torrential rain, and frequent lightning.

While they aren’t technically qualifiers for severe weather, lightning and heavy rain can cause damage and problems of their own. So as the saying goes, “if thunder roars, go indoors”. As far as the rain threat, we’ll once again look at the possibility of flash flooding. That likelihood is more likely north of Route 2 and in northern New England, but the risk is elevated everywhere this evening and tonight.

As mentioned, we’ll keep scattered showers and thunderstorms around all night and they’ll exit by early tomorrow. Outside of a shower on the Cape before 8am, we’ll be dry Saturday. The Cape, SE Mass, and the coast may start with some clouds early Saturday as this system exits, but we’ll develop plenty of sun for much of the day. The takeaway for Saturday’s forecast is decreasing clouds and decreasing humidity as it will be a bit sticky in the morning too.

Sunday looks outstanding with sunshine, warm temperatures, and lower humidity!

Another comfortable August day in the books! The August supermoon was in full force last night, and if you didn’t get a chance to see, tonight will again feature clear skies perfect for viewing. Look to the Eastern sky around 9-10pm for the best viewing. When a supermoon occurs, the moon is in the closest point to Earth in its orbit, so this also affects our tides – just like last night, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect this evening for localized splashover in our coastal communities. The next high tide is around 12:30am tonight.

If you don’t have a chance to catch tonight’s moon, you’re in luck – the full moon at the end of August will also be a supermoon. Tomorrow, expect temperatures to climb into the lower 80s, remaining in the 70s along the coastline. It will be breezy at times, especially in the afternoon hours.

Tomorrow will also be hazy at times, thanks to another plume of wildfire smoke. This won’t be as thick or strong as the rounds of smoke we had earlier in June and July, but it will be noticeable in most locations. At this point, the good news is that no major impact on air quality is anticipated.

On Friday, a cold front approaches us from the North, pushing humid air ahead of it. This influx of moisture, along with other factors, will trigger some scattered storms during the day, becoming most widespread during the afternoon. I don’t think Friday is entirely a washout, and much of the morning will be dry.

Here’s one model’s take at what this could look like – it doesn’t necessarily mean storms will be along the North Shore at 5pm, but it’s meant to give you an idea of the intensity, coverage, and timing of the storms. There is the possibility that some of the storms could turn strong-to-severe, as well.

Things look to clear up for this weekend… a real nice few days to hit the beach! Along the coast, temperatures will peak out in the mid 70s and remain comfortable. Other than a few leftover clouds hanging around Saturday morning, skies will remain mostly sunny. 

August is looking more promising than July already! Just two unsettled days over the next week or so…

Have a great night!

-Tyler

August is off to a great start – an extremely comfortable day in the books so far. In fact, with dew points dropping into the 40s tonight, this officially is the least humid it’s been since June 7th! Humidity looks to stay low tomorrow as well 

Also tonight, take a moment to look up for the supermoon! August’s full moon rises tonight at 8:36pm and skies will be clear, perfect for viewing. Tonight’s moon is also known as the Sturgeon Moon – Native American tribes named it for the abundance of fish during the month of August.

The supermoon occurs when the moon reaches the closest point to us in its orbit around Earth. The moon appears larger than usual, but this closer distance can also have an effect on the tides. We are expecting an astronomical high tide tonight and tomorrow evening – a Coastal Flood Statement is now in effect along our coastlines for localized splashover from the high tides.

The next few days look promising… I talked about the beaches in yesterday’s blog, but another great spot to be will be Polar Park! The Woosox are playing tomorrow and Thursday, and the forecast looks fantastic for some baseball – temperatures in the low 70s and mostly clear skies. 

Friday is when our story changes, thanks to an approaching cold front. More humid air trapped ahead of the cold front will make Thursday feel a bit warmer, while Friday looks to bring scattered storms during the afternoon hours. This cold front looks to clear our area by Saturday morning, leaving high pressure and another period of calm weather behind it. 

Overall, Friday is the most unsettled day throughout the next week – although, we are keeping an eye on another disturbance sometime during the middle of next week. The early look at this weekend looks nice, as well!

Have a great night and remember to look outside this evening! If you catch any great moon pictures, we’d love to see them… share them on social media using the hashtag #7news.

-Tyler

We’ve almost made it through July here in New England. As we wrap up and head into August, it’s worth a look back at our July, an anything-but-beachy month full of rain and humidity. It’s been one of the muggiest Julys in the last 6 or so years – in Boston, there have been 17 days this month with dewpoints over 70 degrees. That’s a baseline for what I’d consider to be tropical, even oppressive humidity. The frizz factor was out in full force… not exactly comfortable for many of us. 

It’s also been an extremely wet July – ranking as the 2^nd wettest July on record in both Boston and Worcester. In Boston, we picked up over 10 inches of rainfall this month, while in Worcester, we accumulated more than 12″ of rainfall. These numbers could sneak up a little bit before July is officially over as a few showers move through this evening, but nothing should make either city jump into first place. Nonetheless, this wasn’t good from a flooding standpoint, or for those who were simply looking for a dry day to get outside.

Over the weekend, a pattern change means this week will look much different than last. As the jet stream dips to our south, cooler Canadian air will work its way into New England, while keeping any weather systems tracking along its path southward. This pattern looks to be in full effect for the rest of this week, calming down our forecast just a bit.

Expect tomorrow to be just as comfortable as today – with highs in the middle and upper 70s and low humidity. It will be a great evening as well… if you’re heading out to the P!nk concert tomorrow at Fenway and thinking “What About Us?”, the forecast looks great for you as well. Temperatures around 70 and mostly clear skies will make for a mild but nice evening. (see, I’m very punny.)

The next few days will be great along the coast as well. If you’re lucky enough to be heading out to the beaches this week, temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 70s, warming slightly by Thursday with a light breeze setting in. Overall, our pattern remains dry through Thursday.

Our luck changes Friday though, as our next major weather system arrives bringing a chance for scattered storms. 

July 2023 is almost in the books, and the first week of August promises to be much nicer. Enjoy!

-Tyler

HEAT:

Temperatures under-performed a bit yesterday with nobody hitting 90°, but lots of 88s on the map. Today we have a better shot at 90° but it will also be more humid. Humidity yesterday was sticky but today and the next couple of days it will be tropical. So factor the two together and it will feel closer to 100° for today, tomorrow, and Saturday.

I want to specifically point out the wind because that’s a huge range and not one we typically use. This morning we’ll start out on the lower end of the range and increase to the higher end of it as the storms get closer this afternoon. While nobody hit 90° yesterday, our chances of a heat wave are not over. We still have the potential of three 90° days starting today through Saturday.

If you’re outside today be sure to take it easy. If you can, try to target your outdoor time to either earlier or later in the day, drink plenty of water, wear light colored and lightweight clothing, find shade and take breaks. As mentioned, this extreme heat and the heat advisory are in effect thru Saturday.

If you’re looking to the beaches to beat the heat, we’ve definitely had better beach days. And if you do head to the beaches make sure you take precautions. Of course that means sunscreen and water, just like anything else you’ll be doing outside, but water conditions could be dangerous at times. There’s a high surf advisory in effect for the Cape and Island (purple). That’s for waves that could be as high as 6 feet. The south facing beaches especially have a high rip current risk, with a moderate risk on east facing beaches.

SEVERE STORMS:

As mentioned earlier, we have to watch for the potential of strong to severe storms this afternoon. Those storms are capable of producing strong wind, downpours, and lightning. While those three are the main threats, an isolated tornado is possible and we’ll have to watch the storms closely as they could try to spin a bit.

The timing of the storms is any time after noon, most likely 1pm – 9pm. As has been the case so many times this year, the heavy rain and downpour potential on already saturated ground has prompted a flood watch again for the potential of flash flooding under any of the downpours.

Yesterday afternoon and evening storms fired up and were strongest, and in some cases repetitive, over the Mass Pike from Springfield all the way to Boston. At one point yesterday both Springfield and Boston were under flash flood warnings. Radar estimates that some areas saw 2-3″ of rain in yesterday’s storms.

While parts of Worcester, and around Worcester saw a couple inches of rain, the airport itself recorded 0.38″. That was enough to pull July 2023 into 2nd place for wettest July on record for the city. We still have six days to go and a few more chances of storms before the month wraps up.

We will bring storm chances back to the area Thursday evening and through the day on Saturday. With the heat and humidity in place, both days have the potential to be severe storm days for the area. More on that a little later.

Today is a dry day. It’s also a pretty hot/warm day, but it’s not quite to the extreme heat and humidity that we’ll finish the week with on Thursday and Friday. For many of us, the potential heat wave will hinge on today — whether or not we can get to 90°. I’m thinking Boston will be able to get to 90° as the wind is juuuust strong enough to hold off the sea breeze. But I will also say, it’s not a guarantee. With the humidity in place, it will feel like the low to middle 90s this afternoon.

The heat will build Thursday and Friday and most towns away from the Cape will reach the 90s for Thursday and Friday. Now, if we don’t hit 90° today, we’ll technically have a chance on Saturday too, but I don’t think the chance Saturday is any better or worse than today. So basically for that potential heat wave you’ll have to get to 90° either today or Saturday (both will be borderline) with the heat on Thursday and Friday in between.

While today is hot, it’s not the peak of the heat and it’s not quite to heat advisory levels. While feels like temperatures today will climb into the 90s, it’s Thursday and Friday that are more concerning. Feels like temperatures those days will be near 100°, so there’s a heat advisory in effect for the end of the week. In this stretch of heat, especially Thursday and Friday, be sure to drink plenty of water, find shade, take breaks, and slow down if you need to be outside.

As I mentioned earlier, while temperatures will get close to 90° today and it’s not a guarantee, it is almost a guarantee for most of us tomorrow. The temperatures will go up, the humidity will go up, and the wind will pick up as well. Tomorrow will be a pretty gusty day. Those southwest winds, that will kick out the sea breeze Thursday, are ahead of a cold front that will bring storms back to the area on Thursday evening.

With the heat and humidity in place, there’s a lot of energy for the storms to tap into tomorrow. We’re currently under a “slight” risk of severe weather for Thursday evening. Honestly, I’m not a fan of the “slight” naming because “slight” gives the impression very low. But on the severe weather scale, that’s a 2/5. For perspective, we were under a 1/5 for yesterday’s storms that did produce a few severe thunderstorm warnings and damage across the area. So tomorrow evening is a day to to be weather aware.

Like yesterday, the storms that do develop tomorrow evening will produce a ton of lightning, downpours, and strong wind gusts. Downpours and lightning are not technically qualifiers for a storm to be severe, but wind is. I have future radar shots a little farther down to show the line of storms that will be inbound tomorrow evening. Typically when we get lines of storms to develop, our biggest threat for severe weather will be strong wind gusts — in this case over 60 mph. HOWEVER, it is not out of the question that a few of those storms show a little spin or rotation. So while the tornado risk tomorrow is lower than the wind risk, it is not a zero risk. Again, tomorrow is a day to be weather aware — both the heat during the day and the storms in the evening.

Tomorrow will start dry in the morning, but storms will start to pop up in the afternoon. Initially, the storms will pop up as a few cells in the afternoon. Those will be more isolated/scattered, but the risk of them being severe is not any less. While they will be lower in coverage area, the possibility of them being strong or severe is just as likely.

As we go deeper into the evening, the cells back near Albany and Vermont will become more linear. And that line will progress eastward as the evening rolls on. Below are timestamps every couple of hours TOMORROW EVENING (just to reiterate that it’s tomorrow and today is dry), starting at 6pm through 10pm.

Of course with the heat in place the rest of the week, beaches come to mind. While most will be good days to sit on the sand or wade in, today looks to be one of the nicer beach days. We’ll have a lot of sunshine, we’re dry, waters are pretty calm with seas only around 2 feet and a low rip current risk.

Thursday will be warm and while most of the day will be dry, that won’t be the case later in the afternoon. We talked about the storm risk above, but those should favor later afternoon and evening hours. The other problem is Thursday is a pretty windy day. Those southwest winds ahead of the storms will really churn up the seas. Seas Thursday could be up to six feet in spots and the rip current risk will be elevated on the south-facing beaches.

The storms we see later today will be scattered and it won’t storm everywhere nor will it storm all afternoon and evening long. It will be on and off, probably more off than on. That said, with the humidity and warm air in place, that’ll be enough storm fuel to produce a few strong or severe storms. I think our main threat will simply be downpours and lightning. Lightning can be plenty dangerous and you should head inside if you hear thunder or see lightning, but it’s not enough for a storm to be classified as severe. The severe component of the storms today will likely be gusty wind. Notice on the severe weather scale, we’re on the low end of things, so it’s not a great chance, but it’s not a zero chance.

From there we crank up the heat for the rest of the week. The heat dome that’s baking the west will expand eastward starting Wednesday and lasting through Saturday, though the heat will peak on Friday for us. Again, today we’re not bad, but it only get’s hotter each day through Friday.

By Wednesday we’ll see our first 90° day (excluding the Cape) but with the humidity will feel like it’s in the 90s.

Thursday we’ll not only bring temperatures up a few more degrees, but watch for a few more storms as well. Temperatures will climb to the lower 90s (cooler on the Cape) on Thursday, but with the humidity it will again feel like the mid to upper 90s. The storm chance looks to hold off until later in the day (evening hours) but like today, some of those could be strong to severe. I think the chance for strong to severe storms Thursday is a little bit higher than today. Today is level 1/5 on the severe weather scale. Right now, Thursday looks to be a 2/5.

Then Friday the heat peaks. We’ll send air temperatures well into the 90s (again, not the Cape) but it will feel like it’s around 100° with the humidity. Right now there are no heat advisories to talk about but that’s because we’re just a little too far out from the heat yet. I’d expect heat advisories starting possibly as soon as tomorrow (Wednesday) and lasting through Friday, if not Saturday.

Saturday won’t be *AS hot, but it will still be plenty hot. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if a few towns hit 90° again on Saturday. I’m going with 89° though, because I don’t think 90° is widespread like it will be over the next few days. Along with another hot day, it’s another day of scattered storms, but this time those storms will break the heat and send in much more comfortable air (both temperatures and humidity) for Sunday and Monday of next week.

For many of us this stretch will be our first heat wave of the year. A few inland towns did it right after the 4th of July (Nashua and Fitchburg) but most of us have not. I think that’ll change this week with most of us seeing a heat wave starting Wednesday and lasting through Friday. I do think the wind should be strong enough Wednesday to push the sea breeze out in Boston and hit 90° and then of course more likely Thursday and Friday.